FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva

Match Analysis & Predictions

Russia: Cup

Wed, 28th Oct, 2026 • 13:00 Group Stage - 5
FC Orenburg FC Orenburg
WWWDW
- VS -
Upcoming
Rodina Moskva Rodina Moskva
LLLDW

Expert Prediction · Double Chance

1X @ 1.24 (80% chance)

Combo Double chance : FC Orenburg or draw and +1.5 goals
80% confidence

Match Odds · Marathonbet

Home Win

1.88 51% implied

Draw

3.64 26% implied

Away Win

4.20 23% implied

All Our Tips For This Match

Double Chance 1X @ 1.24
Over/Under 1.5 Ov 1.5 @ 1.25
Gazovik Stadium, Rostoshi

Head to head

Last 2 meetings
2games
1FC Orenburg wins
1Draws
0Rodina Moskva wins
4.5Goals per game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
19 Oct 2026Premier League Rodina Moskva 2 - 2 FC Orenburg
18 Aug 2026Cup Rodina Moskva 1 - 4 FC Orenburg

Top scorers

Cup
1 Matheus ReisCSKA Moscow 1goals 0assists 1apps
2 O. NdongAkhmat 0goals 1assists 1apps
3 João EscovalAkron 0goals 0assists 1apps
4 F. MoufiBaltika 0goals 0assists 1apps
5 Ygor NogueiraFC Rostov 0goals 0assists 1apps
6 Kevin PinaFC Krasnodar 0goals 0assists 1apps
7 BatxiFC Krasnodar 0goals 0assists 1apps
8 Júlio RomãoAkhmat 0goals 0assists 1apps
9 Gilson BenchimolAkron 0goals 0assists 1apps
10 M. HosseinnezhadDinamo Makhachkala 0goals 0assists 1apps

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
FC Orenburg Draw Rodina Moskva
Value spotted: Rodina Moskva win at 4.20 (model 29% vs market 23%)

Most likely scores

1-1 9.1%
2-1 9.1%
1-2 6.8%
2-2 6.8%
3-1 6%
1-0 6%

Expected goals: 2 FC Orenburg · 1.5 Rodina Moskva

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals86%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Over 3.5 goals46%
Both teams score67%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
67%
Form
33%
53%
Attack
47%
55%
Defence
45%
55%
Goal model
45%
71%
Head to head
29%
67%
Goals
33%
61%
Overall
38%

Recent form

4 W 4 D 2 L in the last 10
23 Oct 2026Premier League Akhmat 0 - 1 FC Orenburg W
19 Oct 2026Premier League Rodina Moskva 2 - 2 FC Orenburg D
15 Oct 2026Cup Rubin 1 - 4 FC Orenburg W
10 Oct 2026Premier League FC Orenburg 4 - 0 Dinamo Makhachkala W
03 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs FC Orenburg 3 - 2 Tekstilshchik W
03 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs Lokomotiv 2 - 0 FC Orenburg L
17 Sep 2026Premier League FC Orenburg 0 - 0 FC Krasnodar D
12 Sep 2026Premier League Dynamo 1 - 0 FC Orenburg L
06 Sep 2026Premier League FC Orenburg 2 - 2 Akron D
02 Sep 2026Cup FC Orenburg 1 - 1 Rubin D
2 W 2 D 6 L in the last 10
24 Oct 2026Premier League Fakel 0 - 1 Rodina Moskva W
19 Oct 2026Premier League Rodina Moskva 2 - 2 FC Orenburg D
15 Oct 2026Cup Rodina Moskva 2 - 4 Spartak Moscow L
11 Oct 2026Premier League CSKA Moscow 3 - 0 Rodina Moskva L
04 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs Dynamo 3 - 2 Rodina Moskva L
27 Sep 2026Friendlies Clubs FK Partizan 2 - 3 Rodina Moskva W
16 Sep 2026Premier League Rodina Moskva 1 - 1 Rubin D
11 Sep 2026Premier League Krylia Sovetov 2 - 1 Rodina Moskva L
06 Sep 2026Premier League Dinamo Makhachkala 2 - 0 Rodina Moskva L
02 Sep 2026Cup Spartak Moscow 3 - 1 Rodina Moskva L

Season numbers

Cup 2026

When the goals come

3
0-15'
1
0
16-30'
0
1
31-45'
4
1
46-60'
2
1
61-75'
0
6
76-90'
2
1
0-15'
1
1
16-30'
1
2
31-45'
2
1
46-60'
1
0
61-75'
2
6
76-90'
3
FC Orenburg Rodina Moskva

Side by side

FC Orenburg Rodina Moskva
4 Played 4
2 Won 1
0 Drawn 0
2 Lost 3
2.5 Goals scored per game 2.3
2.3 Goals conceded per game 2.8
1 / 3 Scored per game (home / away) 2.7 / 1
0 Clean sheets 1
0 Failed to score 0
1 Longest winning run 1
1-4 Biggest win 5-0
1-2 Biggest defeat 1-4
2/4 Penalties scored 1/1

What comes next

FC Orenburg
Rodina Moskva (H) 28 Oct
CSKA Moscow (H) 01 Nov
Krylia Sovetov (A) 08 Nov
Baltika (H) 21 Nov
Spartak Moscow (H) 26 Nov
Rodina Moskva
FC Orenburg (A) 28 Oct
FC Krasnodar (H) 31 Oct
Akhmat (A) 07 Nov
Lokomotiv (H) 22 Nov
Rubin (A) 25 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Betting markets

Odds: Marathonbet
FC Orenburg 1.88 53% implied
Draw 3.64 27% implied
Rodina Moskva 4.20 24% implied
Over 1.5 1.25 80% implied
Under 1.5 3.44 29% implied
Over 2.5 1.89 53% implied
Under 2.5 1.92 52% implied
Over 3.5 3.06 33% implied
Under 3.5 1.31 76% implied
Over 4.5 5.70 18% implied
Under 4.5 1.08 93% implied
FC Orenburg/Draw 15.50 6% implied Our tip
FC Orenburg/Rodina Moskva 41.00 2% implied
Draw/Rodina Moskva 9.10 11% implied
Draw/Draw 5.30 19% implied
FC Orenburg/FC Orenburg 2.79 36% implied
Draw/FC Orenburg 4.70 21% implied
Rodina Moskva/FC Orenburg 26.00 4% implied
Rodina Moskva/Draw 15.75 6% implied
Rodina Moskva/Rodina Moskva 6.95 14% implied
Yes 1.74 57% implied
No 1.98 51% implied
1:1 6.20 16% implied
1:0 6.85 15% implied
2:1 7.80 13% implied
2:0 8.60 12% implied
0:1 11.25 9% implied
0:0 11.75 9% implied
1:2 12.75 8% implied
2:2 13.75 7% implied
FC Orenburg/Draw 1.24 81% implied Our tip
FC Orenburg/Rodina Moskva 1.30 77% implied
Draw/Rodina Moskva 1.95 51% implied
FC Orenburg 2.45 41% implied
Draw 2.16 46% implied
Rodina Moskva 4.65 22% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva: preview and prediction

FC Orenburg host Rodina Moskva in the Russia Cup (Group Stage - 5) on Wednesday, 28th October 2026 at 13:00 at Gazovik Stadium, Rostoshi.

FC Orenburg are flying, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-W-D-W). Rodina Moskva are struggling, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-L-D-W).

In the last 2 meetings, FC Orenburg won 1, Rodina Moskva won 0 and 1 ended level. These games average 4.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% and over 2.5 goals in 100%.

Our goal model expects about 2 goals for FC Orenburg and 1.5 for Rodina Moskva. It gives FC Orenburg the edge (49% home win, 22% draw, 29% away win), 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Verdict: our pick is Double Chance (1X) at odds of 1.24. We also like Ov 1.5.

FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva FAQs

What is the best prediction for FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.24 odds).

Who will win FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?

FC Orenburg are favourites: our model gives FC Orenburg 49%, the draw 22% and Rodina Moskva 29%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 67% chance in our model, and it happened in 100% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 3.5 goals in total, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?

Kick-off is on Wednesday, 28th October 2026 at 13:00 at Gazovik Stadium, Rostoshi.

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