Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Match Analysis & Predictions

Mexico: Liga de Expansión MX

Sun, 18th Oct, 2026 • 18:00 Apertura - 13
Leones Negros UDG Leones Negros UDG
2nd in table
LWWDL
1 VS 2
Finished
HT 1 - 1
Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca
13th in table
LLLWW
8' K. Alvarez
10' Andrey Marcos
13' J. Brigido
42' J. Bustos (Penalty)
48' J. Marchand
54' O. Gonzalez
58' U. Meza
66' J. Escalante
71' Andrey Marcos
75' P. Villa
76' A. De Jesus Bravo Santiago
83' E. Sanchez

Expert Prediction · Home Win

1 @ 1.36 (89% chance) Lost

Combo Winner : Leones Negros UDG and +1.5 goals
89% confidence

Match Odds · Bet365

Home Win

1.42 66% implied

Draw

4.75 20% implied

Away Win

6.50 14% implied
Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara L. A. Garcia Olvera

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
3Leones Negros UDG wins
5Draws
1Alebrijes de Oaxaca wins
2.9Goals per game
56%Both scored
56%Over 2.5
28 Mar 2026Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 - 1 Leones Negros UDG
18 Oct 2025Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 0 - 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
16 Mar 2025Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 3 - 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
29 Sep 2024Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2 - 2 Leones Negros UDG
15 Feb 2024Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0 - 3 Leones Negros UDG
04 Aug 2023Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 5 - 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
15 Mar 2023Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2 - 2 Leones Negros UDG
26 Jun 2022Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 0 - 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca
20 Jan 2022Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 - 1 Leones Negros UDG

Liga de Expansión MX table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 CA La Paz 13733 30:17 +13 24 DWLWW
2 Leones Negros UDG 13733 29:19 +10 24 LDWWL
3 Monarcas 13724 23:15 +8 23 LDDLW
4 Piratas 13634 21:14 +7 21 WLWLW
5 Venados FC 13634 28:23 +5 21 DDWWL
6 Durango 13634 16:11 +5 21 WDWWW
7 Cancún 13544 22:18 +4 19 DDWLW
8 Mineros de Zacatecas 13535 26:23 +3 18 LDLWW
9 Tapatío 13526 23:25 -2 17 LWLLW
10 Dorados 13445 23:24 -1 16 WLLLD
11 Correcaminos Uat 13445 21:22 -1 16 LLDWL
12 Tlaxcala 13445 25:27 -2 16 DWDWL
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 13517 12:24 -12 16 WWLLL
14 CDS Tampico Madero 13436 14:20 -6 15 WDLLD
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 13355 16:20 -4 14 WWDLL
16 Tepatitlán 132110 10:37 -27 7 LLDWL

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Leones Negros UDG Draw Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Most likely scores

2-1 8.7%
3-1 7.9%
2-0 6.9%
3-0 6.3%
1-1 6.3%
4-1 5.5%

Expected goals: 2.75 Leones Negros UDG · 1.25 Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals90%
Over 2.5 goals75%
Over 3.5 goals56%
Both teams score66%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
57%
Form
43%
73%
Attack
27%
55%
Defence
45%
80%
Goal model
20%
62%
Head to head
38%
60%
Goals
40%
64%
Overall
35%

Recent form

5 W 3 D 2 L in the last 10
18 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 1 - 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca L
10 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Venados FC 1 - 1 Leones Negros UDG D
04 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 6 - 3 Dorados W
26 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Cruz Azul Hidalgo 1 - 2 Leones Negros UDG W
20 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Monarcas 2 - 0 Leones Negros UDG L
13 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 2 - 2 CA La Paz D
06 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Tapatío 1 - 3 Leones Negros UDG W
30 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 1 - 1 Piratas D
23 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX Durango 1 - 2 Leones Negros UDG W
16 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 4 - 0 CDS Tampico Madero W
4 W 1 D 5 L in the last 10
18 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Leones Negros UDG 1 - 2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca W
09 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2 - 1 Correcaminos Uat W
04 Oct 2026Liga de Expansión MX Piratas 4 - 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca L
25 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 - 3 CA La Paz L
20 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Cancún 3 - 0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca L
11 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 - 0 Durango W
06 Sep 2026Liga de Expansión MX Monarcas 4 - 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca L
28 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 - 1 Tapatío D
23 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX CDS Tampico Madero 2 - 1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca L
14 Aug 2026Liga de Expansión MX Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1 - 0 Tepatitlán W

Season numbers

Liga de Expansión MX 2026

When the goals come

8
0-15'
0
4
16-30'
1
3
31-45'
0
2
46-60'
4
2
61-75'
2
7
76-90'
3
0
0-15'
1
5
16-30'
5
2
31-45'
1
4
46-60'
2
1
61-75'
4
7
76-90'
10
Leones Negros UDG Alebrijes de Oaxaca

Side by side

Leones Negros UDG Alebrijes de Oaxaca
12 Played 12
7 Won 4
3 Drawn 1
2 Lost 7
2.3 Goals scored per game 0.8
1.4 Goals conceded per game 1.9
2.8 / 2 Scored per game (home / away) 1 / 0.7
2 Clean sheets 3
1 Failed to score 4
2 Longest winning run 2
4-0 Biggest win 2-1
1-3 Biggest defeat 1-3
0/2 Penalties scored 3/4

What comes next

Leones Negros UDG
Mineros de Zacatecas (A) 25 Oct
Tepatitlán (H) 01 Nov
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Cruz Azul Hidalgo (H) 23 Oct
Mineros de Zacatecas (H) 30 Oct
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
Leones Negros UDG 1.42 70% implied Our tip
Draw 4.75 21% implied
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 6.50 15% implied
Leones Negros UDG 1.17 85% implied Our tip
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 4.50 22% implied
Over 2.5 1.57 64% implied
Under 2.5 2.35 43% implied
Leones Negros UDG/Draw 19.00 5% implied
Leones Negros UDG/Alebrijes de Oaxaca 41.00 2% implied
Draw/Alebrijes de Oaxaca 13.00 8% implied
Draw/Draw 7.50 13% implied
Leones Negros UDG/Leones Negros UDG 2.10 48% implied
Draw/Leones Negros UDG 4.33 23% implied
Alebrijes de Oaxaca/Leones Negros UDG 19.00 5% implied
Alebrijes de Oaxaca/Draw 19.00 5% implied
Alebrijes de Oaxaca/Alebrijes de Oaxaca 9.50 11% implied
2:0 8.00 13% implied
1:0 9.00 11% implied
1:1 9.00 11% implied
2:1 9.50 11% implied
3:0 10.00 10% implied
3:1 13.00 8% implied
4:0 15.00 7% implied
0:0 15.00 7% implied
Leones Negros UDG/Draw 1.11 90% implied
Leones Negros UDG/Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.17 85% implied
Draw/Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2.62 38% implied
Leones Negros UDG 1.83 55% implied Our tip
Draw 2.50 40% implied
Alebrijes de Oaxaca 5.50 18% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: preview and prediction

Leones Negros UDG host Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico Liga de Expansión MX (Apertura - 13) on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 18:00 at Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara. Leones Negros UDG sit 2nd in the table and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 13th. Leones Negros UDG are 8 points ahead (24 to 16).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
2 Leones Negros UDG 13733 29:19 +10 24
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 13517 12:24 -12 16

Full Liga de Expansión MX standings

Leones Negros UDG have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-W-D-L). Alebrijes de Oaxaca are struggling, with 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games (L-L-L-W-W).

In the last 9 meetings, Leones Negros UDG won 3, Alebrijes de Oaxaca won 1 and 5 ended level. These games average 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% and over 2.5 goals in 56%.

Our goal model expects about 2.75 goals for Leones Negros UDG and 1.25 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca. It gives Leones Negros UDG the edge (68% home win, 16% draw, 15% away win), 75% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-1.

Our pick was Home Win (1) at odds of 1.36.

Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca FAQs

What is the best prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Our top tip is Home Win: 1 (1.36 odds).

Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Leones Negros UDG are favourites: our model gives Leones Negros UDG 68%, the draw 16% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 15%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 66% chance in our model, and it happened in 56% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 4 goals in total, with a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Leones Negros UDG vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 18:00 at Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara.

Who is the referee?

L. A. Garcia Olvera is in charge of this game.

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