Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama

Match Analysis & Predictions

Brazil: Serie A

Sun, 18th Oct, 2026 • 00:00 Regular Season - 31
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
10th in table
DWLLW
1 VS 0
Finished
HT 0 - 0
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
15th in table
WWWDW
42' Artur Victor Guimarães
44' Facundo Colidio
54' Gabriel Pereira
68' Artur Victor Guimarães
90+2' Iago Amaral Borduchi

Expert Prediction · Double Chance

1X @ 1.28 (76% chance) Won

Double chance : draw or Vasco DA Gama
76% confidence

Match Odds · Bet365

Home Win

2.20 43% implied

Draw

3.20 30% implied

Away Win

3.50 27% implied

All Our Tips For This Match

Double Chance 1X @ 1.28
Over/Under 1.5 Ov 1.5 @ 1.36
Morumbi, Sao Paulo Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho

Head to head

Last 9 meetings
9games
5Sao Paulo wins
1Draws
3Vasco DA Gama wins
3.1Goals per game
56%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
18 Apr 2026Serie A Vasco DA Gama 2 - 1 Sao Paulo
02 Nov 2025Serie A Vasco DA Gama 0 - 2 Sao Paulo
13 Jun 2025Serie A Sao Paulo 1 - 3 Vasco DA Gama
17 Oct 2024Serie A Sao Paulo 3 - 0 Vasco DA Gama
23 Jun 2024Serie A Vasco DA Gama 4 - 1 Sao Paulo
07 Oct 2023Serie A Vasco DA Gama 0 - 0 Sao Paulo
20 May 2023Serie A Sao Paulo 4 - 2 Vasco DA Gama
05 Aug 2021Copa Do Brasil Vasco DA Gama 1 - 2 Sao Paulo
29 Jul 2021Copa Do Brasil Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Vasco DA Gama

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Flamengo 301974 58:25 +33 64 WDWWW
2 Palmeiras 301893 52:22 +30 63 WWDWD
3 Atletico Paranaense 301587 49:35 +14 53 WDWDL
4 Fluminense 301497 48:37 +11 51 LWWLW
5 Atletico-MG 311489 42:35 +7 50 WWDWD
6 Bahia 3013107 44:36 +8 49 WLLWW
7 Cruzeiro 3014610 46:44 +2 48 LWWLW
8 Santos 3011910 46:45 +1 42 LDWWW
9 RB Bragantino 3011712 38:35 +3 40 WDLLD
10 Sao Paulo 3011613 35:35 0 39 WLLWL
11 Botafogo 3110912 44:48 -4 39 WDLLW
12 Coritiba 3110912 38:49 -11 39 LDLLD
13 Vitoria 3010614 33:44 -11 36 LWLDW
14 Mirassol 319913 36:44 -8 36 WLDWD
15 Vasco DA Gama 299812 36:42 -6 35 DWWWL
16 Corinthians 308814 31:38 -7 32 LLLLL
17 Internacional 3171113 33:40 -7 32 LDWLW
18 Gremio 3071013 32:40 -8 31 DDDLL
19 Remo 3051015 33:48 -15 25 DDLLL
20 Chapecoense-sc 303918 30:62 -32 18 LLLDL

Top scorers

Serie A
1 K. ViverosAtletico Paranaense 21goals 3assists 28apps
2 PedroFlamengo 16goals 6assists 30apps
3 Gabriel BarbosaSantos 14goals 3assists 22apps
4 Danilo SantosBotafogo 10goals 2assists 23apps
5 Carlos ViníciusGremio 10goals 1assists 29apps
6 J. CalleriSao Paulo 10goals 1assists 25apps
7 Luciano JubaBahia 10goals 1assists 26apps
8 Samuel LinoFlamengo 9goals 7assists 29apps
9 Matheus PereiraCruzeiro 9goals 5assists 27apps
10 J. LópezPalmeiras 9goals 4assists 27apps

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Sao Paulo Draw Vasco DA Gama
Value spotted: Sao Paulo win at 2.20 (model 53% vs market 43%)

Most likely scores

1-0 11.7%
1-1 11.7%
2-0 9.6%
2-1 9.6%
0-0 7.1%
0-1 7.1%

Expected goals: 1.65 Sao Paulo · 1 Vasco DA Gama

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals74%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Over 3.5 goals27%
Both teams score51%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
38%
Form
63%
31%
Attack
69%
30%
Defence
70%
69%
Goal model
31%
40%
Head to head
60%
47%
Goals
53%
42%
Overall
57%

Recent form

4 W 1 D 4 L in the last 9
11 Oct 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 2 - 1 Vitoria W
08 Oct 2026Serie A Cruzeiro 2 - 0 Sao Paulo L
02 Oct 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 1 - 2 Santos L
20 Sep 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 1 - 0 Internacional W
16 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Sao Paulo 1 - 1 Boca Juniors D
12 Sep 2026Serie A Palmeiras 2 - 0 Sao Paulo L
09 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Boca Juniors 1 - 0 Sao Paulo L
05 Sep 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 2 - 0 Atletico-MG W
29 Aug 2026Serie A Sao Paulo 2 - 1 RB Bragantino W
6 W 2 D 1 L in the last 9
14 Oct 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Boca Juniors 0 - 1 Vasco DA Gama W
10 Oct 2026Serie A Vasco DA Gama 0 - 0 Remo D
07 Oct 2026Serie A Botafogo 1 - 2 Vasco DA Gama W
19 Sep 2026Serie A Vasco DA Gama 5 - 0 Coritiba W
15 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Vasco DA Gama 2 - 0 Santa Fe W
12 Sep 2026Serie A Gremio 1 - 2 Vasco DA Gama W
08 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Sudamericana Santa Fe 0 - 0 Vasco DA Gama D
06 Sep 2026Serie A Fluminense 1 - 0 Vasco DA Gama L
03 Sep 2026Copa Do Brasil Vitoria 0 - 2 Vasco DA Gama W

Season numbers

Serie A 2026

When the goals come

5
0-15'
1
5
16-30'
4
3
31-45'
6
7
46-60'
8
10
61-75'
6
3
76-90'
11
1
0-15'
4
4
16-30'
5
6
31-45'
5
14
46-60'
9
3
61-75'
8
6
76-90'
7
Sao Paulo Vasco DA Gama

Side by side

Sao Paulo Vasco DA Gama
30 Played 29
11 Won 9
6 Drawn 8
13 Lost 12
1.2 Goals scored per game 1.2
1.2 Goals conceded per game 1.4
1.6 / 0.7 Scored per game (home / away) 1.4 / 1.1
6 Clean sheets 4
7 Failed to score 9
4 Longest winning run 3
4-1 Biggest win 5-0
1-2 Biggest defeat 0-3
6/6 Penalties scored 2/2

What comes next

Sao Paulo
Mirassol (A) 24 Oct
Bahia (A) 29 Oct
Corinthians (H) 05 Nov
Fluminense (H) 18 Nov
Botafogo (A) 22 Nov
Vasco DA Gama
Boca Juniors (H) 21 Oct
Corinthians (H) 24 Oct
Flamengo (H) 29 Oct
Palmeiras (A) 01 Nov
Atletico Paranaense (A) 04 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Missing players

Sao Paulo
N. Bosshardt Inactive
Buta Knee Injury
Cauly Inactive
Djhordney Yellow Cards
D. Duarte Knee Injury
Ferreira Injury
Vasco DA Gama
Cauan Barros Inactive
C. Cuesta Inactive
M. Hinestroza Inactive
Mateus Carvalho Knee Injury
N. Moreira Inactive
C. Spinelli Inactive
F. Colidio Injury

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
Sao Paulo 2.20 45% implied
Draw 3.20 31% implied
Vasco DA Gama 3.50 29% implied
Sao Paulo 1.50 67% implied
Vasco DA Gama 2.50 40% implied
Over 0.5 1.07 93% implied
Under 0.5 9.00 11% implied
Over 1.5 1.33 75% implied
Under 1.5 3.40 29% implied
Over 2.5 2.05 49% implied
Under 2.5 1.75 57% implied
Over 3.5 3.75 27% implied
Under 3.5 1.28 78% implied
Over 4.5 7.00 14% implied
Under 4.5 1.10 91% implied
Sao Paulo/Draw 13.00 8% implied Our tip
Sao Paulo/Vasco DA Gama 34.00 3% implied
Draw/Vasco DA Gama 7.00 14% implied
Draw/Draw 4.75 21% implied
Sao Paulo/Sao Paulo 3.60 28% implied
Draw/Sao Paulo 5.50 18% implied
Vasco DA Gama/Sao Paulo 26.00 4% implied
Vasco DA Gama/Draw 15.00 7% implied
Vasco DA Gama/Vasco DA Gama 5.50 18% implied
Yes 1.80 56% implied
No 1.95 51% implied
1:1 6.00 17% implied
1:0 7.00 14% implied
2:1 9.00 11% implied
0:0 9.00 11% implied
2:0 10.00 10% implied
0:1 10.00 10% implied
1:2 13.00 8% implied
2:2 15.00 7% implied
Sao Paulo/Draw 1.28 78% implied Our tip
Sao Paulo/Vasco DA Gama 1.33 75% implied
Draw/Vasco DA Gama 1.67 60% implied
Sao Paulo 2.88 35% implied
Draw 2.05 49% implied
Vasco DA Gama 4.00 25% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama: preview and prediction

Sao Paulo host Vasco DA Gama in the Brazil Serie A (Regular Season - 31) on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 00:00 at Morumbi, Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo sit 10th in the table and Vasco DA Gama 15th. Sao Paulo are 4 points ahead (39 to 35).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
10 Sao Paulo 3011613 35:35 0 39
15 Vasco DA Gama 299812 36:42 -6 35

Full Serie A standings

Sao Paulo have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (D-W-L-L-W). Vasco DA Gama are flying, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-W-D-W).

In the last 9 meetings, Sao Paulo won 5, Vasco DA Gama won 3 and 1 ended level. These games average 3.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 56% and over 2.5 goals in 67%.

Our goal model expects about 1.65 goals for Sao Paulo and 1 for Vasco DA Gama. It gives Sao Paulo the edge (53% home win, 25% draw, 23% away win), 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-0.

Our pick was Double Chance (1X) at odds of 1.28. We also like Ov 1.5.

Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama FAQs

What is the best prediction for Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Our top tip is Double Chance: 1X (1.28 odds).

Who will win Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Sao Paulo are favourites: our model gives Sao Paulo 53%, the draw 25% and Vasco DA Gama 23%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 51% chance in our model, and it happened in 56% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.7 goals in total, with a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Sao Paulo vs Vasco DA Gama?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 00:00 at Morumbi, Sao Paulo.

Who is the referee?

Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Filho is in charge of this game.

More Serie A Tips

00:30 Athletico-PR Palmeiras X2 21:00 Fluminense Santos 1X 21:00 Gremio Cruzeiro 1X 23:30 Bahia Flamengo RJ X2