Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington

Match Analysis & Predictions

USA: USL Championship

Sun, 18th Oct, 2026 • 02:30 Group Stage
Las Vegas Lights Las Vegas Lights
10th in table
WDLWL
3 VS 5
Finished
HT 2 - 2
Lexington Lexington
4th in table
WWWWD
4' X. Zengue
25' C. Locker
39' Nick Firmino
45+2' O. Anderson
62' Nick Firmino
75' B. Ferri
81' P. Leal
90+1' P. Seagrist
90+4' M. Arteaga

Expert Prediction · Both Teams Score

BTS @ 1.50 (90% chance) Won

Double chance : draw or Lexington
90% confidence

Match Odds · Bet365

Home Win

2.90 31% implied

Draw

3.50 26% implied

Away Win

2.05 44% implied

All Our Tips For This Match

Both Teams Score BTS @ 1.50
Double Chance X2 @ 1.33
Cashman Field I. Bych

Head to head

Last 4 meetings
4games
2Las Vegas Lights wins
1Draws
1Lexington wins
1.5Goals per game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
22 Aug 2026USL Championship Lexington 2 - 0 Las Vegas Lights
03 May 2026USL Championship Las Vegas Lights 2 - 1 Lexington
31 Aug 2025USL Championship Las Vegas Lights 1 - 0 Lexington
12 Apr 2025USL Championship Lexington 0 - 0 Las Vegas Lights

USL Championship table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 El Paso Locomotive 281558 48:36 +12 50 WLDWW
2 New Mexico United 281477 44:33 +11 49 WWLLD
3 Sacramento Republic 2811125 38:26 +12 45 DDWWD
4 Lexington 2813510 49:33 +16 44 DWWWW
5 FC Tulsa 2811107 32:25 +7 43 DDWDD
6 Colorado Springs 281189 41:38 +3 41 DDDDW
7 Orange County SC 281099 37:44 -7 39 LLWLL
8 San Antonio 289127 29:29 0 39 DLDDL
9 Phoenix Rising 289910 39:42 -3 36 WLLLW
10 Las Vegas Lights 2810612 37:41 -4 36 LWLDW
11 Oakland Roots 288119 33:35 -2 35 DDWWL
12 Monterey Bay 285617 30:50 -20 21 LWLLD

Top scorers

USL Championship
1 J. LocadiaMiami FC 6goals 0assists 14apps
2 A. MéndezEl Paso Locomotive 2goals 1assists 4apps
3 Pedro SantosLoudoun United 0goals 0assists 5apps
4 J. SoñoraMiami FC 0goals 0assists 2apps
5 Mattheus OliveiraTampa Bay Rowdies 0goals 0assists 2apps

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Las Vegas Lights Draw Lexington
Value spotted: Las Vegas Lights win at 2.90 (model 37% vs market 31%)

Most likely scores

1-1 12.6%
0-1 9.7%
1-0 9.7%
1-2 8.2%
2-1 8.2%
0-0 7.4%

Expected goals: 1.3 Las Vegas Lights · 1.3 Lexington

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals73%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Over 3.5 goals26%
Both teams score53%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
35%
Form
65%
33%
Attack
67%
36%
Defence
64%
44%
Goal model
56%
64%
Head to head
36%
50%
Goals
50%
43%
Overall
56%

Recent form

4 W 1 D 5 L in the last 10
11 Oct 2026USL Championship Phoenix Rising 3 - 2 Las Vegas Lights L
04 Oct 2026USL Championship Las Vegas Lights 1 - 0 San Antonio W
01 Oct 2026USL Championship Sacramento Republic 3 - 2 Las Vegas Lights L
20 Sep 2026USL Championship Las Vegas Lights 1 - 1 Hartford Athletic D
13 Sep 2026USL Championship Orange County SC 0 - 2 Las Vegas Lights W
06 Sep 2026USL Championship Las Vegas Lights 1 - 2 New Mexico United L
30 Aug 2026USL Championship Las Vegas Lights 0 - 2 Charleston Battery L
22 Aug 2026USL Championship Lexington 2 - 0 Las Vegas Lights L
16 Aug 2026USL Championship Las Vegas Lights 2 - 1 Brooklyn W
08 Aug 2026USL Championship Miami FC 0 - 1 Las Vegas Lights W
5 W 1 D 4 L in the last 10
09 Oct 2026USL Championship Lexington 0 - 0 FC Tulsa D
03 Oct 2026USL Championship Lexington 3 - 1 El Paso Locomotive W
27 Sep 2026USL Championship Monterey Bay 2 - 3 Lexington W
19 Sep 2026USL Championship Lexington 6 - 0 Orange County SC W
13 Sep 2026USL Championship Oakland Roots 1 - 4 Lexington W
05 Sep 2026USL Championship Sporting JAX 3 - 2 Lexington L
29 Aug 2026USL Championship Lexington 0 - 1 Colorado Springs L
27 Aug 2026USL Championship New Mexico United 2 - 1 Lexington L
22 Aug 2026USL Championship Lexington 2 - 0 Las Vegas Lights W
16 Aug 2026USL Championship Sacramento Republic 1 - 0 Lexington L

Season numbers

USL Championship 2026

When the goals come

6
0-15'
7
3
16-30'
5
9
31-45'
5
6
46-60'
8
6
61-75'
10
9
76-90'
12
4
0-15'
5
6
16-30'
5
9
31-45'
5
11
46-60'
2
3
61-75'
8
6
76-90'
10
Las Vegas Lights Lexington

Side by side

Las Vegas Lights Lexington
28 Played 28
10 Won 13
6 Drawn 5
12 Lost 10
1.3 Goals scored per game 1.8
1.5 Goals conceded per game 1.2
1.1 / 1.6 Scored per game (home / away) 1.9 / 1.6
8 Clean sheets 10
4 Failed to score 7
2 Longest winning run 4
2-0 Biggest win 6-0
0-2 Biggest defeat 1-4
1/2 Penalties scored 0/1

What comes next

Las Vegas Lights
Lexington (H) 18 Oct
Monterey Bay (A) 25 Oct
Lexington
Las Vegas Lights (A) 18 Oct
Phoenix Rising (A) 25 Oct
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
Las Vegas Lights 2.90 34% implied
Draw 3.50 29% implied
Lexington 2.05 49% implied
Las Vegas Lights 2.25 44% implied
Lexington 1.57 64% implied
Over 0.5 1.03 97% implied
Under 0.5 10.00 10% implied
Over 1.5 1.20 83% implied
Under 1.5 4.33 23% implied
Over 2.5 1.62 62% implied
Under 2.5 2.25 44% implied
Over 3.5 2.50 40% implied
Under 3.5 1.50 67% implied
Over 4.5 4.33 23% implied
Under 4.5 1.20 83% implied
Las Vegas Lights/Draw 15.00 7% implied
Las Vegas Lights/Lexington 23.00 4% implied
Draw/Lexington 6.00 17% implied Our tip
Draw/Draw 6.00 17% implied
Las Vegas Lights/Las Vegas Lights 4.75 21% implied
Draw/Las Vegas Lights 7.50 13% implied
Lexington/Las Vegas Lights 29.00 3% implied
Lexington/Draw 15.00 7% implied
Lexington/Lexington 3.25 31% implied
Yes 1.53 65% implied
No 2.38 42% implied
1:1 7.50 13% implied
1:2 9.50 11% implied
0:1 11.00 9% implied
2:1 12.00 8% implied
2:2 12.00 8% implied
0:2 12.00 8% implied
1:0 13.00 8% implied
0:0 15.00 7% implied
Las Vegas Lights/Draw 1.62 62% implied
Las Vegas Lights/Lexington 1.22 82% implied
Draw/Lexington 1.30 77% implied Our tip
Las Vegas Lights 3.40 29% implied
Draw 2.38 42% implied
Lexington 2.60 38% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington: preview and prediction

Las Vegas Lights host Lexington in the USA USL Championship (Group Stage) on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 02:30 at Cashman Field. Las Vegas Lights sit 10th in the table and Lexington 4th. Lexington are 8 points ahead (44 to 36).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
4 Lexington 2813510 49:33 +16 44
10 Las Vegas Lights 2810612 37:41 -4 36

Full USL Championship standings

Las Vegas Lights have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (W-D-L-W-L). Lexington are flying, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (W-W-W-W-D).

In the last 4 meetings, Las Vegas Lights won 2, Lexington won 1 and 1 ended level. These games average 1.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% and over 2.5 goals in 25%.

Our goal model expects about 1.3 goals for Las Vegas Lights and 1.3 for Lexington. It gives Las Vegas Lights the edge (37% home win, 26% draw, 37% away win), 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Both Teams Score (BTS) at odds of 1.50. We also like Double Chance (X2).

Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington FAQs

What is the best prediction for Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?

Our top tip is Both Teams Score: BTS (1.50 odds).

Who will win Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?

It looks very close: our model gives Las Vegas Lights 37%, the draw 26% and Lexington 37%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 53% chance in our model, and it happened in 25% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.6 goals in total, with a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Las Vegas Lights vs Lexington?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 02:30 at Cashman Field.

Who is the referee?

I. Bych is in charge of this game.

More USL Championship Tips

01:00 Hartford Athletic Brooklyn 1 01:00 Louisville City Indy Eleven 1 01:00 Miami FC Charleston BTS 01:30 Rhode Island Pittsburgh 1X 01:30 Tampa Bay Detroit 1X 02:00 FC Tulsa Oakland Roots 1X