Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras

Match Analysis & Predictions

Brazil: Serie A

Sat, 17th Oct, 2026 • 22:30 Regular Season - 31
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
3rd in table
DWDWL
0 VS 2
Finished
HT 0 - 2
Palmeiras Palmeiras
2nd in table
DWWWW
6' Maurício Magalhães Prado
9' Gilberto
10' Joaquín Piquerez
22' Andreas Pereira
35' Joaquín Piquerez
43' Andreas Pereira
57' Leonardo Caetano Silva

Expert Prediction · Double Chance

X2 @ 1.40 (70% chance) Lost

Double chance : draw or Palmeiras
70% confidence

Match Odds · Bet365

Home Win

2.88 33% implied

Draw

3.40 28% implied

Away Win

2.45 39% implied
Arena da Baixada, Curitiba Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
10games
3Atletico Paranaense wins
2Draws
5Palmeiras wins
2.3Goals per game
30%Both scored
30%Over 2.5
19 Apr 2026Serie A Palmeiras 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense
01 Sep 2024Serie A Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2 Palmeiras
12 May 2024Serie A Palmeiras 0 - 2 Atletico Paranaense
05 Nov 2023Serie A Palmeiras 1 - 0 Atletico Paranaense
02 Jul 2023Serie A Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Palmeiras
26 Oct 2022Serie A Atletico Paranaense 1 - 3 Palmeiras
07 Sep 2022CONMEBOL Libertadores Palmeiras 2 - 2 Atletico Paranaense
31 Aug 2022CONMEBOL Libertadores Atletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Palmeiras
03 Jul 2022Serie A Palmeiras 0 - 2 Atletico Paranaense
03 Mar 2022CONMEBOL Recopa Palmeiras 2 - 0 Atletico Paranaense

Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Flamengo 301974 58:25 +33 64 WDWWW
2 Palmeiras 301893 52:22 +30 63 WWDWD
3 Atletico Paranaense 301587 49:35 +14 53 WDWDL
4 Fluminense 301497 48:37 +11 51 LWWLW
5 Atletico-MG 311489 42:35 +7 50 WWDWD
6 Bahia 3013107 44:36 +8 49 WLLWW
7 Cruzeiro 3014610 46:44 +2 48 LWWLW
8 Santos 3011910 46:45 +1 42 LDWWW
9 RB Bragantino 3011712 38:35 +3 40 WDLLD
10 Sao Paulo 3011613 35:35 0 39 WLLWL
11 Botafogo 3110912 44:48 -4 39 WDLLW
12 Coritiba 3110912 38:49 -11 39 LDLLD
13 Vitoria 3010614 33:44 -11 36 LWLDW
14 Mirassol 319913 36:44 -8 36 WLDWD
15 Vasco DA Gama 299812 36:42 -6 35 DWWWL
16 Corinthians 308814 31:38 -7 32 LLLLL
17 Internacional 3171113 33:40 -7 32 LDWLW
18 Gremio 3071013 32:40 -8 31 DDDLL
19 Remo 3051015 33:48 -15 25 DDLLL
20 Chapecoense-sc 303918 30:62 -32 18 LLLDL

Top scorers

Serie A
1 K. ViverosAtletico Paranaense 21goals 3assists 28apps
2 PedroFlamengo 16goals 6assists 30apps
3 Gabriel BarbosaSantos 14goals 3assists 22apps
4 Danilo SantosBotafogo 10goals 2assists 23apps
5 Carlos ViníciusGremio 10goals 1assists 29apps
6 J. CalleriSao Paulo 10goals 1assists 25apps
7 Luciano JubaBahia 10goals 1assists 26apps
8 Samuel LinoFlamengo 9goals 7assists 29apps
9 Matheus PereiraCruzeiro 9goals 5assists 27apps
10 J. LópezPalmeiras 9goals 4assists 27apps

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Atletico Paranaense Draw Palmeiras

Most likely scores

1-1 12.7%
1-0 10.2%
0-1 9.8%
2-1 8.2%
1-2 7.9%
0-0 7.8%

Expected goals: 1.3 Atletico Paranaense · 1.25 Palmeiras

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Over 3.5 goals25%
Both teams score52%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
42%
Form
58%
63%
Attack
37%
9%
Defence
91%
43%
Goal model
57%
29%
Head to head
71%
40%
Goals
60%
37%
Overall
62%

Recent form

4 W 4 D 2 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2 Palmeiras L
12 Oct 2026Serie A Chapecoense-sc 1 - 4 Atletico Paranaense W
08 Oct 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Atletico-MG D
20 Sep 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 2 - 1 Bahia W
12 Sep 2026Serie A Coritiba 3 - 3 Atletico Paranaense D
06 Sep 2026Serie A Cruzeiro 3 - 1 Atletico Paranaense L
30 Aug 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 3 - 3 Fluminense D
24 Aug 2026Serie A Botafogo 2 - 3 Atletico Paranaense W
15 Aug 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 1 - 1 RB Bragantino D
09 Aug 2026Serie A Santos 0 - 2 Atletico Paranaense W
6 W 3 D 1 L in the last 10
17 Oct 2026Serie A Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2 Palmeiras W
15 Oct 2026CONMEBOL Libertadores Fluminense 1 - 2 Palmeiras W
11 Oct 2026Serie A Palmeiras 4 - 1 Corinthians W
09 Oct 2026Serie A Palmeiras 1 - 0 Bahia W
20 Sep 2026Serie A Gremio 0 - 0 Palmeiras D
16 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Libertadores LDU de Quito 3 - 2 Palmeiras L
12 Sep 2026Serie A Palmeiras 2 - 0 Sao Paulo W
09 Sep 2026CONMEBOL Libertadores Palmeiras 1 - 0 LDU de Quito W
06 Sep 2026Serie A Botafogo 0 - 0 Palmeiras D
03 Sep 2026Copa Do Brasil Santos 0 - 0 Palmeiras D

Season numbers

Serie A 2026

When the goals come

13
0-15'
8
5
16-30'
10
4
31-45'
6
11
46-60'
10
4
61-75'
9
7
76-90'
7
5
0-15'
2
7
16-30'
1
7
31-45'
5
1
46-60'
7
4
61-75'
3
7
76-90'
3
Atletico Paranaense Palmeiras

Side by side

Atletico Paranaense Palmeiras
30 Played 30
15 Won 18
8 Drawn 9
7 Lost 3
1.6 Goals scored per game 1.7
1.2 Goals conceded per game 0.7
1.8 / 1.5 Scored per game (home / away) 1.9 / 1.6
8 Clean sheets 13
6 Failed to score 4
4 Longest winning run 5
4-1 Biggest win 5-1
0-1 Biggest defeat 1-2
5/6 Penalties scored 2/3

What comes next

Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria (A) 24 Oct
Gremio (A) 30 Oct
Vasco DA Gama (H) 04 Nov
Flamengo (A) 18 Nov
Remo (H) 22 Nov
Palmeiras
Fluminense (H) 22 Oct
RB Bragantino (H) 24 Oct
Santos (A) 28 Oct
Vasco DA Gama (H) 01 Nov
Remo (H) 05 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Missing players

Atletico Paranaense
G. Benavidez Muscle Injury
K. A. Calderon Vargas Inactive
Dantas Inactive
Gilberto Junior Loan agreement
C. Teran Inactive
Palmeiras
A. Giay Yellow Cards
G. Gomez Yellow Cards
Jefte Knee Injury
Vitor Roque Inactive

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
Atletico Paranaense 2.88 35% implied
Draw 3.40 29% implied
Palmeiras 2.45 41% implied
Atletico Paranaense 2.00 50% implied
Palmeiras 1.73 58% implied
Over 0.5 1.05 95% implied
Under 0.5 11.00 9% implied
Over 1.5 1.28 78% implied
Under 1.5 3.75 27% implied
Over 2.5 1.90 53% implied
Under 2.5 1.90 53% implied
Over 3.5 3.20 31% implied
Under 3.5 1.36 74% implied
Over 4.5 6.00 17% implied
Under 4.5 1.12 89% implied
Atletico Paranaense/Draw 13.00 8% implied
Atletico Paranaense/Palmeiras 26.00 4% implied
Draw/Palmeiras 6.00 17% implied Our tip
Draw/Draw 5.50 18% implied
Atletico Paranaense/Atletico Paranaense 4.50 22% implied
Draw/Atletico Paranaense 6.50 15% implied
Palmeiras/Atletico Paranaense 26.00 4% implied
Palmeiras/Draw 13.00 8% implied
Palmeiras/Palmeiras 4.00 25% implied
Yes 1.70 59% implied
No 2.05 49% implied
1:1 6.50 15% implied
0:1 9.00 11% implied
1:2 9.50 11% implied
1:0 10.00 10% implied
2:1 11.00 9% implied
0:0 11.00 9% implied
0:2 12.00 8% implied
2:2 13.00 8% implied
Atletico Paranaense/Draw 1.53 65% implied
Atletico Paranaense/Palmeiras 1.30 77% implied
Draw/Palmeiras 1.40 71% implied Our tip
Atletico Paranaense 3.40 29% implied
Draw 2.20 45% implied
Palmeiras 3.00 33% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras: preview and prediction

Atletico Paranaense host Palmeiras in the Brazil Serie A (Regular Season - 31) on Saturday, 17th October 2026 at 22:30 at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba. Atletico Paranaense sit 3rd in the table and Palmeiras 2nd. Palmeiras are 10 points ahead (63 to 53).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
2 Palmeiras 301893 52:22 +30 63
3 Atletico Paranaense 301587 49:35 +14 53

Full Serie A standings

Atletico Paranaense have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games (D-W-D-W-L). Palmeiras are flying, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games (D-W-W-W-W).

In the last 10 meetings, Atletico Paranaense won 3, Palmeiras won 5 and 2 ended level. These games average 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 30% and over 2.5 goals in 30%.

Our goal model expects about 1.3 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.25 for Palmeiras. It gives Atletico Paranaense the edge (38% home win, 27% draw, 35% away win), 47% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 1-1.

Our pick was Double Chance (X2) at odds of 1.40.

Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras FAQs

What is the best prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?

Our top tip is Double Chance: X2 (1.40 odds).

Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?

Atletico Paranaense are favourites: our model gives Atletico Paranaense 38%, the draw 27% and Palmeiras 35%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 52% chance in our model, and it happened in 30% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 2.6 goals in total, with a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?

Kick-off is on Saturday, 17th October 2026 at 22:30 at Arena da Baixada, Curitiba.

Who is the referee?

Paulo Cesar Zanovelli da Silva is in charge of this game.

More Serie A Tips

02:00 Sao Paulo Vasco 1X 21:00 Fluminense Santos 1X 21:00 Gremio Cruzeiro 1X 23:30 Bahia Flamengo RJ X2