Toluca vs Atletico San Luis

Match Analysis & Predictions

Mexico: Liga MX

Sun, 18th Oct, 2026 • 01:00 Apertura - 12
Toluca Toluca
3rd in table
LDLLD
1 VS 1
Finished
HT 0 - 0
Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis
15th in table
LWWLD
67' Érick Gutiérrez
73' Rafael Llorente

Expert Prediction · Home Win

1 @ 1.30 (74% chance) Lost

Combo Winner : Toluca and +1.5 goals
74% confidence

Match Odds · Bet365

Home Win

1.33 71% implied

Draw

5.50 17% implied

Away Win

8.00 12% implied

All Our Tips For This Match

Home Win 1 @ 1.30
Both Teams Score BTS @ 1.57
Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
10games
7Toluca wins
1Draws
2Atletico San Luis wins
2.7Goals per game
60%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
13 Apr 2026Liga MX Toluca 1 - 1 Atletico San Luis
30 Aug 2025Liga MX Atletico San Luis 1 - 3 Toluca
17 Apr 2025Liga MX Atletico San Luis 0 - 1 Toluca
25 Aug 2024Liga MX Toluca 2 - 1 Atletico San Luis
20 Apr 2024Liga MX Atletico San Luis 1 - 5 Toluca
29 Oct 2023Liga MX Toluca 3 - 1 Atletico San Luis
26 Feb 2023Liga MX Toluca 2 - 0 Atletico San Luis
21 Aug 2022Liga MX Atletico San Luis 1 - 0 Toluca
12 Feb 2022Liga MX Atletico San Luis 0 - 1 Toluca
26 Sep 2021Liga MX Toluca 1 - 2 Atletico San Luis

Liga MX table

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPtsForm
1 Club America 10631 22:11 +11 21 DWDLW
2 Atlas 12633 19:18 +1 21 WDWDL
3 Toluca 11623 25:15 +10 20 LDLWW
4 Club Queretaro 10622 15:8 +7 20 WWDWW
5 Guadalajara Chivas 11542 18:11 +7 19 DLDWW
6 Club Leon 11533 15:12 +3 18 DWDWL
7 Cruz Azul 11524 22:21 +1 17 DDLWW
8 Club Tijuana 11443 15:14 +1 16 DDLDL
9 U.N.A.M. - Pumas 12444 19:20 -1 16 WDLDL
10 Puebla 12444 12:13 -1 16 DDLDL
11 Monterrey 10424 17:15 +2 14 DLWDL
12 CF Pachuca 11344 18:14 +4 13 DLDWW
13 Tigres UANL 11344 13:15 -2 13 WWLDD
14 Santos Laguna 11416 12:16 -4 13 WWWWL
15 Atletico San Luis 11335 15:20 -5 12 LWWLL
16 Atlante FC 12255 13:19 -6 11 LLWDL
17 Necaxa 12237 15:25 -10 9 LDLLL
18 FC Juarez 11119 8:26 -18 4 DLWLL

Top scorers

Liga MX
1 S. RondónCF Pachuca 12goals 0assists 11apps
2 J. CarranzaNecaxa 7goals 2assists 10apps
3 J. BrunettaTigres UANL 6goals 4assists 11apps
4 JuninhoU.N.A.M. - Pumas 6goals 1assists 11apps
5 Ó. EstupiñánFC Juarez 6goals 0assists 11apps
6 H. MartínClub America 6goals 2assists 9apps
7 F. ViñasToluca 5goals 0assists 8apps
8 L. OcamposMonterrey 5goals 1assists 8apps
9 S. HomenchenkoClub Queretaro 5goals 2assists 10apps
10 G. MoraClub Tijuana 5goals 1assists 7apps

Who wins? Three ways to read it

1 · X · 2
Our goal model
API-Football
Bookmaker
Toluca Draw Atletico San Luis
Value spotted: Atletico San Luis win at 8.00 (model 24% vs market 12%)

Most likely scores

2-1 8.3%
3-1 6.9%
2-2 6.6%
1-1 6.6%
3-2 5.5%
1-2 5.3%

Expected goals: 2.5 Toluca · 1.6 Atletico San Luis

Goal lines

Over 1.5 goals91%
Over 2.5 goals77%
Over 3.5 goals58%
Both teams score73%

Team comparison

Form Attack Defence Goal model Head to head Goals Overall
54%
Form
46%
65%
Attack
35%
48%
Defence
52%
68%
Goal model
32%
93%
Head to head
7%
75%
Goals
25%
67%
Overall
32%

Recent form

5 W 2 D 3 L in the last 10
18 Oct 2026Liga MX Toluca 1 - 1 Atletico San Luis D
10 Oct 2026Liga MX Tigres UANL 3 - 2 Toluca L
03 Oct 2026Friendlies Clubs Monterrey 2 - 1 Toluca L
26 Sep 2026Liga MX Cruz Azul 3 - 3 Toluca D
21 Sep 2026Liga MX Toluca 2 - 3 Santos Laguna L
16 Sep 2026Liga MX Puebla 0 - 1 Toluca W
12 Sep 2026Liga MX Toluca 5 - 2 Atlas W
07 Sep 2026Leagues Cup Toluca 2 - 0 Monterrey W
03 Sep 2026Leagues Cup Toluca 2 - 0 Leon W
31 Aug 2026Liga MX Toluca 4 - 0 FC Juarez W
3 W 3 D 4 L in the last 10
18 Oct 2026Liga MX Toluca 1 - 1 Atletico San Luis D
11 Oct 2026Liga MX Atletico San Luis 1 - 2 Santos Laguna L
27 Sep 2026Liga MX U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2 - 3 Atletico San Luis W
19 Sep 2026Liga MX Atletico San Luis 3 - 1 Necaxa W
15 Sep 2026Liga MX Leon 2 - 0 Atletico San Luis L
05 Sep 2026Liga MX Atletico San Luis 0 - 3 Guadalajara Chivas L
31 Aug 2026Liga MX Monterrey 1 - 3 Atletico San Luis W
23 Aug 2026Liga MX Atletico San Luis 1 - 1 CF Pachuca D
16 Aug 2026Liga MX Club America 3 - 0 Atletico San Luis L
12 Aug 2026Leagues Cup Orlando City SC 2 - 2 Atletico San Luis D

Season numbers

Liga MX 2026

When the goals come

2
0-15'
2
5
16-30'
3
4
31-45'
2
4
46-60'
3
3
61-75'
0
3
76-90'
5
2
0-15'
3
0
16-30'
1
5
31-45'
1
5
46-60'
5
2
61-75'
5
5
76-90'
5
Toluca Atletico San Luis

Side by side

Toluca Atletico San Luis
11 Played 11
6 Won 3
2 Drawn 3
3 Lost 5
2.3 Goals scored per game 1.4
1.4 Goals conceded per game 1.8
3 / 1.7 Scored per game (home / away) 1.2 / 1.6
4 Clean sheets 1
1 Failed to score 4
4 Longest winning run 2
4-0 Biggest win 3-1
2-3 Biggest defeat 0-3
4/4 Penalties scored 2/2

What comes next

Toluca
Club Tijuana (H) 22 Oct
Leon (A) 24 Oct
Club America (A) 01 Nov
Monterrey (H) 08 Nov
CF Pachuca (A) 21 Nov
Atletico San Luis
Club Queretaro (H) 21 Oct
Atlante FC (A) 24 Oct
Atlas (H) 31 Oct
FC Juarez (H) 07 Nov
Puebla (A) 21 Nov
Bottom thirdMid tableTop third

Betting markets

Odds: Bet365
Toluca 1.33 75% implied Our tip
Draw 5.50 18% implied
Atletico San Luis 8.00 13% implied
Toluca 1.11 90% implied Our tip
Atletico San Luis 6.50 15% implied
Over 0.5 1.01 99% implied
Under 0.5 21.00 5% implied
Over 1.5 1.11 90% implied
Under 1.5 6.50 15% implied
Over 2.5 1.40 71% implied
Under 2.5 2.88 35% implied
Over 3.5 2.00 50% implied
Under 3.5 1.73 58% implied
Over 4.5 3.40 29% implied
Under 4.5 1.30 77% implied
Toluca/Draw 17.00 6% implied
Toluca/Atletico San Luis 41.00 2% implied
Draw/Atletico San Luis 17.00 6% implied
Draw/Draw 9.00 11% implied
Toluca/Toluca 1.83 55% implied
Draw/Toluca 4.33 23% implied
Atletico San Luis/Toluca 17.00 6% implied
Atletico San Luis/Draw 19.00 5% implied
Atletico San Luis/Atletico San Luis 15.00 7% implied
Yes 1.67 60% implied
No 2.10 48% implied
2:0 8.50 12% implied
2:1 9.00 11% implied
3:0 9.50 11% implied
3:1 10.00 10% implied
1:0 11.00 9% implied
1:1 11.00 9% implied
4:0 15.00 7% implied
4:1 15.00 7% implied
Toluca/Draw 1.08 93% implied
Toluca/Atletico San Luis 1.14 88% implied
Draw/Atletico San Luis 3.25 31% implied
Toluca 1.73 58% implied Our tip
Draw 2.88 35% implied
Atletico San Luis 7.00 14% implied

Odds can change. Implied probability = 100 / odds and includes the bookmaker margin. 18+ Gamble responsibly.

Toluca vs Atletico San Luis: preview and prediction

Toluca host Atletico San Luis in the Mexico Liga MX (Apertura - 12) on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 01:00 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca. Toluca sit 3rd in the table and Atletico San Luis 15th. Toluca are 8 points ahead (20 to 12).

#TeamPWDLGoalsGDPts
3 Toluca 11623 25:15 +10 20
15 Atletico San Luis 11335 15:20 -5 12

Full Liga MX standings

Toluca are struggling, with 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games (L-D-L-L-D). Atletico San Luis have been inconsistent, with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 games (L-W-W-L-D).

In the last 10 meetings, Toluca won 7, Atletico San Luis won 2 and 1 ended level. These games average 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% and over 2.5 goals in 50%.

Our goal model expects about 2.5 goals for Toluca and 1.6 for Atletico San Luis. It gives Toluca the edge (57% home win, 19% draw, 24% away win), 77% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score. The most likely score is 2-1.

Our pick was Home Win (1) at odds of 1.30. We also like Both Teams Score (BTS).

Toluca vs Atletico San Luis FAQs

What is the best prediction for Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?

Our top tip is Home Win: 1 (1.30 odds).

Who will win Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?

Toluca are favourites: our model gives Toluca 57%, the draw 19% and Atletico San Luis 24%.

Will both teams score?

Both teams scoring has a 73% chance in our model, and it happened in 60% of recent meetings.

How many goals are expected?

Our model expects 4.1 goals in total, with a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals.

When is Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?

Kick-off is on Sunday, 18th October 2026 at 01:00 at Estadio Nemesio Diez, Toluca.

Who is the referee?

Marco Antonio Ortiz Nava is in charge of this game.

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